Triathlon pacing is one system: the swim sets up the bike, the bike sets up the run. Run blow-ups are rarely only a run problem — wrong training, nutrition, or fatigue all play a part — but pacing too hard on the bike is one of the biggest ways to guarantee a rough run.
Race pacing targets are what you plan to hold on race day — swim, bike, and run as % of CSS, FTP, and FT: CSS (Critical Swim Speed), FTP (Functional Threshold Power), and FT (Functional Threshold pace). On the bike, that percentage is a normalised power target — not a live-watt ceiling every second.
Current thresholds matter — the same CSS, FTP, and FT behind your Training Zones and Workout Intensities. Set them using our Test tool — see How to Test Your Thresholds for protocols — or sync from a clean race in the Race Vault. Then open the Race Simulator: pick your distance (or drop your race bike GPX), see swim, bike, and run targets and a planning finish time, and lock in numbers well before race day.
The Race Simulator applies targets from your profile — e.g. Olympic 100% CSS / 85% FTP / 100% FT; 70.3 95% / 80% / 95%; Ironman 85% / 70% / 89%. For the bike, that FTP % is your normalised power goal. Load a course GPX PRO to pace on real elevation. Update thresholds on our Test tool or from a clean race in the Race Vault.
Philosophy
Conserve to Perform
Triathlon rewards restraint — even more as distance increases. Holding back on the bike to run well beats hammering the bike and walking. On the run, aim for even or negative splits — second half at least as fast as the first.
Targets
WattX Targets by Distance
- Swim105% CSS
- Bike95% FTP
- Run104% FT
Short, near-maximal — restraint still matters on the bike.
- Swim95% CSS
- Bike80% FTP
- Run95% FT
Restraint on the bike is the skill.
- Swim85% CSS
- Bike70% FTP
- Run89% FT
Fuel and run legs trump bike heroics.
These are leg targets for the full distance. On the bike (Olympic and longer), treat the FTP % as normalised power — live watts will sit above target on climbs and below on descents. What matters is keeping NP stable near plan, not chasing every 30-second reading. On the run, hold the planned pace across the whole leg the same way. The Race Simulator percentages are built around that idea.
For Olympic-specific execution, see Olympic Race Explained.
Swim
Swim: Controlled Start
Bike
Bike: The Critical Decision
Terrain: adapt live watts, hold NP
Match how the Race Simulator frames the bike when a course is loaded:
Course GPX in the simulator PRO
Drop your race bike GPX into the Race Simulator to pace on real elevation. The model uses your power, weight, garage bike type (CdA), and the course profile. Treat the bike split as a planning estimate for calm conditions — wind and race chaos are not modelled. The number you race to is still the NP %FTP target. Course upload and the in-depth course card require an active WattX plan.
Practise that NP on long rides so race day feels familiar.
If you cannot ride with power, use RPE 6–7/10 — comfortably hard, not a crit.
T2
T2: Do Not Sprint Out
Cycling legs make early run pace feel easier than it is. Check pace in the first 200 m and deliberately slow if you are ahead of plan.
Run
Run: Patience, Then Build
If Nutrition was right, the last quarter should feel increasingly strong.
Before & after
Before and After Race Day
Lock targets in the Race Simulator weeks out — not in transition.
Load the bike course GPX in the simulator when you have it; still walk the run and transition flow on maps or a course visit.
Feed predicted splits into Nutrition Strategy.
After the race, log in the Race Vault — Race Analysis Explained compares execution and can suggest threshold syncs.
For kit and race-week logistics, see Race Week Explained.